Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Roberts to the Bench

The Tradesports market did not read Bush's mind today. John G. Roberts gets the nomination, and the market had a low of 0.4 on him today. The market took the conventional wisdom that it would be a women nominee. Today's highs were 88 for Clement, 59 for Jones, and 29.5 for Luttig. The first solid tip on Roberts from Bench Memos came in at 7:05 PM EDT, and the announcement hit at 7:47 PM EDT.

The information that prediction markets are best at aggregating and the markets that are most fun to participate in do not have much overlap.

Update: 7/20
Jim Lindgren and Orin Kerr at Volokh Conspiracy had a discussion thread on the Tradesports prices. Their graph shows that prices on Roberts first spiked at 6:49 before dropping later. The final convergence began at 7:44, about two minutes before the name was printed by the press.

Update: 7/25
It appears the first Roberts tip came from NRO's the corner at 5:24 PM


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